Altona Magic 0–2 Avondale: Result & Stats

Altona Magic

FT

0 – 2

Avondale

2/22/2020

Victoria NPL · Round 2Stead Park - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Altona Magic24%

×Draw23%

Avondale53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altona MagicExpected goals in this matchAvondale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.85

Altona Magic

1.19

Avondale

1.85

Avondale creates 55% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

1.22

creates per match

2.22

1.49

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Altona Magic

1.22

Avondale

2.22

allows per match

Altona Magic

1.49

Avondale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altona Magic+0.00on par

Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona Magic ↓

Avondale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Altona Magic or draw

47%

Altona Magic or Avondale

77%

Draw or Avondale

76%

Winning margin

Altona Magic wins by 2+

10%

Avondale wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Altona Magic 1+ goals

70%

Altona Magic 2+ goals

33%

Altona Magic 3+ goals

12%

Avondale 1+ goals

84%

Avondale 2+ goals

55%

Avondale 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Altona Magic (draw refunded)

32%

Avondale (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona Magic at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.49 · 87 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona Magic attack 1.22 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Avondale attack 2.22 + Altona Magic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Altona Magic scores more

24%

level

23%

Avondale scores more

53%

Avondale at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff