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Altenmarkt W vs Wacker Innsbruck W — Frauenliga 2019

Altenmarkt W
Altenmarkt W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wacker Innsbruck W
Wacker Innsbruck W
S. Gamper 53'
D. Lemesova 18'
3/20/2022FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 11Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Altenmarkt W43%
×Draw19%
Wacker Innsbruck W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt W
2.43
Wacker Innsbruck W
2.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt W
0.66
Wacker Innsbruck W
0.93

allows per match

Altenmarkt W
3.63
Wacker Innsbruck W
4.20

finishing

Altenmarkt W+0.00on par
Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt W ↓

Wacker Innsbruck W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Altenmarkt W or draw
62%
Altenmarkt W or Wacker Innsbruck W
81%
Draw or Wacker Innsbruck W
57%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt W wins by 2+
25%
Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Altenmarkt W 1+ goals
91%
Altenmarkt W 2+ goals
69%
Altenmarkt W 3+ goals
43%
Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals
90%
Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals
66%
Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt W (draw refunded)
53%
Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt W at home — creates 0.66, concedes 3.63 · 32 matches

Wacker Innsbruck W away — creates 0.93, concedes 4.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt W attack 0.66 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.43

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 0.93 + Altenmarkt W defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Altenmarkt W scores more
43%
level
19%
Wacker Innsbruck W scores more
38%

Altenmarkt W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Altenmarkt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
D. Lemesova
53'
S. Gamper

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altenmarkt W vs Wacker Innsbruck W

Altenmarkt W and Wacker Innsbruck W drew 1-1 in Frauenliga on March 20, 2022.

Goals: D. Lemesova (18'), S. Gamper (53').

The match was played at Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt in Altenmarkt an der Triesting.