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Altenmarkt W vs Sturm Graz W — Frauenliga 2019

Altenmarkt W
Altenmarkt W
FT
0 – 11
HT: 0 – 5
Sturm Graz W
Sturm Graz W
A. Schasching 89', 25'
M. Croatto 88', 79', 67'
V. Kroll 59'
L. Krumbock 51', 34'
A. Malle 45+1', 18'
J. Matuschewski 32'
10/29/2022FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 8Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Altenmarkt W8%
×Draw13%
Sturm Graz W78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt W
0.86
Sturm Graz W
2.91

Sturm Graz W creates 238% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 65 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt W
0.66
Sturm Graz W
2.18

allows per match

Altenmarkt W
3.63
Sturm Graz W
1.06

finishing

Altenmarkt W+0.00on par
Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt W ↓

Sturm Graz W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Altenmarkt W or draw
22%
Altenmarkt W or Sturm Graz W
87%
Draw or Sturm Graz W
92%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt W wins by 2+
2%
Sturm Graz W wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Altenmarkt W 1+ goals
58%
Altenmarkt W 2+ goals
21%
Altenmarkt W 3+ goals
6%
Sturm Graz W 1+ goals
94%
Sturm Graz W 2+ goals
78%
Sturm Graz W 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt W (draw refunded)
10%
Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt W at home — creates 0.66, concedes 3.63 · 32 matches

Sturm Graz W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt W attack 0.66 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.86

Sturm Graz W attack 2.18 + Altenmarkt W defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Altenmarkt W scores more
8%
level
13%
Sturm Graz W scores more
78%

Sturm Graz W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Malle
25'
A. Schasching
32'
J. Matuschewski
34'
L. Krumbock
45+1'
A. Malle
51'
L. Krumbock
59'
V. Kroll
67'
M. Croatto
79'
M. Croatto
88'
M. Croatto
89'
A. Schasching

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauenliga: Altenmarkt W 0–11 Sturm Graz W

Sturm Graz W beat Altenmarkt W 11-0 in Frauenliga on October 29, 2022.

Goals: A. Malle (18', 45+1'), A. Schasching (25', 89'), J. Matuschewski (32'), L. Krumbock (34', 51'), V. Kroll (59'), M. Croatto (67', 79', 88').

The match was played at Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt in Altenmarkt an der Triesting.