Altenmarkt W 0–5 Neulengbach W: Result & Stats

Altenmarkt W

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Neulengbach W

T. Weiss 85'

K. Panakova 83', 55', 11'

L. Spinn 38'

5/6/2023

Frauenliga · Round 14Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Altenmarkt W12%

×Draw16%

Neulengbach W72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altenmarkt WExpected goals in this matchNeulengbach W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

2.60

Altenmarkt W

0.98

Neulengbach W

2.60

Neulengbach W creates 165% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

0.66

creates per match

1.57

3.63

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Altenmarkt W

0.66

Neulengbach W

1.57

allows per match

Altenmarkt W

3.63

Neulengbach W

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altenmarkt W+0.00on par

Neulengbach W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt W ↓

Neulengbach W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Altenmarkt W or draw

28%

Altenmarkt W or Neulengbach W

84%

Draw or Neulengbach W

88%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt W wins by 2+

4%

Neulengbach W wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Altenmarkt W 1+ goals

62%

Altenmarkt W 2+ goals

26%

Altenmarkt W 3+ goals

8%

Neulengbach W 1+ goals

92%

Neulengbach W 2+ goals

73%

Neulengbach W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt W (draw refunded)

15%

Neulengbach W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt W at home — creates 0.66, concedes 3.63 · 32 matches

Neulengbach W away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt W attack 0.66 + Neulengbach W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.98

Neulengbach W attack 1.57 + Altenmarkt W defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Altenmarkt W scores more

12%

level

16%

Neulengbach W scores more

72%

Neulengbach W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Neulengbach W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

K. Panakova

38'

L. Spinn

55'

K. Panakova

83'

K. Panakova

85'

T. Weiss

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff