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Altenmarkt W vs Horn W — Frauenliga 2019

Altenmarkt W
Altenmarkt W
FT
3 – 0
Horn W
Horn W
5/30/2021FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 18Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Altenmarkt W31%
×Draw20%
Horn W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt W
1.76
Horn W
2.24

Horn W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt W
0.66
Horn W
0.85

allows per match

Altenmarkt W
3.63
Horn W
2.85

finishing

Altenmarkt W+0.00on par
Horn W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt W ↓

Horn W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Altenmarkt W or draw
51%
Altenmarkt W or Horn W
80%
Draw or Horn W
69%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt W wins by 2+
15%
Horn W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Altenmarkt W 1+ goals
83%
Altenmarkt W 2+ goals
52%
Altenmarkt W 3+ goals
26%
Horn W 1+ goals
89%
Horn W 2+ goals
65%
Horn W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt W (draw refunded)
39%
Horn W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt W at home — creates 0.66, concedes 3.63 · 32 matches

Horn W away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt W attack 0.66 + Horn W defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Horn W attack 0.85 + Altenmarkt W defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Altenmarkt W scores more
31%
level
20%
Horn W scores more
49%

Horn W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Horn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altenmarkt W vs Horn W

Altenmarkt W beat Horn W 3-0 in Frauenliga on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt in Altenmarkt an der Triesting.