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Altenmarkt W vs First Vienna W — Frauenliga 2019

Altenmarkt W
Altenmarkt W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
First Vienna W
First Vienna W
I. Aistleitner 86'
L. Kovar 76'
9/10/2022FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 2Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Altenmarkt W14%
×Draw16%
First Vienna W71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt W
1.16
First Vienna W
2.79

First Vienna W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt W
0.66
First Vienna W
1.94

allows per match

Altenmarkt W
3.63
First Vienna W
1.65

finishing

Altenmarkt W+0.00on par
First Vienna W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt W ↓

First Vienna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Altenmarkt W or draw
29%
Altenmarkt W or First Vienna W
84%
Draw or First Vienna W
86%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt W wins by 2+
5%
First Vienna W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Altenmarkt W 1+ goals
69%
Altenmarkt W 2+ goals
32%
Altenmarkt W 3+ goals
11%
First Vienna W 1+ goals
94%
First Vienna W 2+ goals
76%
First Vienna W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt W (draw refunded)
16%
First Vienna W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt W at home — creates 0.66, concedes 3.63 · 32 matches

First Vienna W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt W attack 0.66 + First Vienna W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.16

First Vienna W attack 1.94 + Altenmarkt W defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Altenmarkt W scores more
14%
level
16%
First Vienna W scores more
71%

First Vienna W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "First Vienna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
L. Kovar
86'
I. Aistleitner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauenliga: Altenmarkt W 0–2 First Vienna W

First Vienna W beat Altenmarkt W 2-0 in Frauenliga on September 10, 2022.

Goals: L. Kovar (76'), I. Aistleitner (86').

The match was played at Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt in Altenmarkt an der Triesting.