Altenmarkt W 0–5 Austria Wien W: Result & Stats

Altenmarkt W

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Austria Wien W

10/15/2022

Frauenliga · Round 6Sportplatz SKV Altenmarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Altenmarkt W7%

×Draw13%

Austria Wien W80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altenmarkt WExpected goals in this matchAustria Wien W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

2.90

Altenmarkt W

0.76

Austria Wien W

2.90

Austria Wien W creates 282% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

0.66

creates per match

2.16

3.63

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Altenmarkt W

0.66

Austria Wien W

2.16

allows per match

Altenmarkt W

3.63

Austria Wien W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altenmarkt W+0.00on par

Austria Wien W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt W ↓

Austria Wien W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–211%

0–311%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Altenmarkt W or draw

20%

Altenmarkt W or Austria Wien W

87%

Draw or Austria Wien W

93%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt W wins by 2+

2%

Austria Wien W wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Altenmarkt W 1+ goals

53%

Altenmarkt W 2+ goals

18%

Altenmarkt W 3+ goals

4%

Austria Wien W 1+ goals

94%

Austria Wien W 2+ goals

78%

Austria Wien W 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt W (draw refunded)

8%

Austria Wien W (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt W at home — creates 0.66, concedes 3.63 · 32 matches

Austria Wien W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt W attack 0.66 + Austria Wien W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Austria Wien W attack 2.16 + Altenmarkt W defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Altenmarkt W scores more

7%

level

13%

Austria Wien W scores more

80%

Austria Wien W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Austria Wien W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff