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Altenmarkt vs Zell am See — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
FT
1 – 2
Zell am See
Zell am See
10/5/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 10Sportanlage Schlatterberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Altenmarkt31%
×Draw23%
Zell am See46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt
1.47
Zell am See
1.81

Zell am See creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 8 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt
1.56
Zell am See
1.63

allows per match

Altenmarkt
2.00
Zell am See
1.38

finishing

Altenmarkt+0.00on par
Zell am See+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt ↓

Zell am See →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Altenmarkt or draw
54%
Altenmarkt or Zell am See
77%
Draw or Zell am See
69%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt wins by 2+
14%
Zell am See wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Altenmarkt 1+ goals
77%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
43%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
18%
Zell am See 1+ goals
84%
Zell am See 2+ goals
54%
Zell am See 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
41%
Zell am See (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

Zell am See away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt attack 1.56 + Zell am See defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Zell am See attack 1.63 + Altenmarkt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altenmarkt scores more
31%
level
23%
Zell am See scores more
46%

Zell am See at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zell am See will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Altenmarkt 1–2 Zell am See

Zell am See beat Altenmarkt 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schlatterberg in Altenmarkt im Pongau.