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Altenmarkt vs ÖTSU Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
FT
1 – 1
ÖTSU Hallein
ÖTSU Hallein
10/2/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 9Sportanlage Schlatterberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Altenmarkt31%
×Draw22%
ÖTSU Hallein47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt
1.50
ÖTSU Hallein
1.89

ÖTSU Hallein creates 26% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 23 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt
1.56
ÖTSU Hallein
1.78

allows per match

Altenmarkt
2.00
ÖTSU Hallein
1.43

finishing

Altenmarkt+0.00on par
ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Altenmarkt or draw
53%
Altenmarkt or ÖTSU Hallein
78%
Draw or ÖTSU Hallein
69%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt wins by 2+
14%
ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Altenmarkt 1+ goals
78%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
44%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
19%
ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals
85%
ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals
56%
ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
40%
ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt attack 1.56 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Altenmarkt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Altenmarkt scores more
31%
level
22%
ÖTSU Hallein scores more
47%

ÖTSU Hallein at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Altenmarkt 1–1 ÖTSU Hallein

Altenmarkt and ÖTSU Hallein drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schlatterberg in Altenmarkt im Pongau.