Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Altenmarkt vs Golling — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
CANC
15:00
Golling
Golling
5/9/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 22Sportanlage Schlatterberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Altenmarkt43%
×Draw22%
Golling35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altenmarkt
1.94
Golling
1.75

Altenmarkt creates 11% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 56 away

creates per match

Altenmarkt
1.56
Golling
1.50

allows per match

Altenmarkt
2.00
Golling
2.32

finishing

Altenmarkt+0.00on par
Golling+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt ↓

Golling →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Altenmarkt or draw
65%
Altenmarkt or Golling
78%
Draw or Golling
57%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt wins by 2+
23%
Golling wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Altenmarkt 1+ goals
86%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
58%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
30%
Golling 1+ goals
83%
Golling 2+ goals
52%
Golling 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
55%
Golling (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

Golling away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt attack 1.56 + Golling defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.94

Golling attack 1.50 + Altenmarkt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Altenmarkt scores more
43%
level
22%
Golling scores more
35%

Altenmarkt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Altenmarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Altenmarkt host Golling

May 9, 2020: Altenmarkt take on Golling in Landesliga - Salzburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Altenmarkt host Golling at Sportanlage Schlatterberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.