Altay 1–1 Söke 1970: Result & Stats

Altay

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Söke 1970

10/18/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAlsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Altay75%

×Draw15%

Söke 19709%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchSöke 1970

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.78

Altay

2.56

Söke 1970

0.78

Altay creates 228% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.78

creates per match

0.00

1.56

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Altay

1.78

Söke 1970

0.00

allows per match

Altay

1.56

Söke 1970

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Söke 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Söke 1970 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Altay or draw

91%

Altay or Söke 1970

85%

Draw or Söke 1970

25%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

53%

Söke 1970 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

92%

Altay 2+ goals

72%

Altay 3+ goals

46%

Söke 1970 1+ goals

54%

Söke 1970 2+ goals

18%

Söke 1970 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

89%

Söke 1970 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Söke 1970 away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.78 + Söke 1970 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

Söke 1970 attack 0.00 + Altay defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Altay scores more

75%

level

15%

Söke 1970 scores more

9%

Altay at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff