Altay 3–1 Sakaryaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Altay

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sakaryaspor

4/3/2023

1. Lig · Round 30Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Altay46%

×Draw25%

Sakaryaspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchSakaryaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.21

Altay

1.58

Sakaryaspor

1.21

Altay creates 31% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 71 away

1.38

creates per match

1.15

1.28

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Altay

1.38

Sakaryaspor

1.15

allows per match

Altay

1.28

Sakaryaspor

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Sakaryaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Altay or draw

71%

Altay or Sakaryaspor

75%

Draw or Sakaryaspor

54%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

23%

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

79%

Altay 2+ goals

47%

Altay 3+ goals

21%

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

70%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

34%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

61%

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.38 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sakaryaspor attack 1.15 + Altay defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altay scores more

46%

level

25%

Sakaryaspor scores more

29%

Altay at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff