Altay 1–4 Pendikspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Altay

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Pendikspor

Marco Paixão 45+8' (pen)

Thuram 90+2', 25'

A. Ildız 69'

L. Kappel 62'

1/21/2023

1. Lig · Round 21Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Altay37%

×Draw26%

Pendikspor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Altay

1.35

Pendikspor

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 57 away

1.36

creates per match

1.42

1.30

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Altay

1.36

Pendikspor

1.42

allows per match

Altay

1.30

Pendikspor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Altay or draw

63%

Altay or Pendikspor

74%

Draw or Pendikspor

63%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

17%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

74%

Altay 2+ goals

39%

Altay 3+ goals

15%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

74%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

39%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

50%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.36 + Pendikspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pendikspor attack 1.42 + Altay defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Altay scores more

37%

level

26%

Pendikspor scores more

37%

Altay at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Thuram

Pendikspor · F

8.6

Match Events

-5'

Zeki Yildirim

25'

Thuram↳ L. Kappel

45+6'

Özgür ÖzkayaPenalty confirmed

45+8'

Marco PaixãoPenalty

62'

L. Kappel↳ Thuram

69'

A. Ildız↳ A. Regattin

73'

D. Kadah← Ö. Özkaya

73'

M. Gündüz← S. Sarıkaya

73'

75'

78'

88'

90+6'

90+2'

E. Yetkin← E. Erdoğan

90+4'

Aias Aosman← A. Regattin

90+4'

O. Çağlayan← Thuram

90+2'

Thuram↳ L. Kappel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AltayPendikspor

Overview

31%Possession69%

12Total Shots14

3Corners3

10Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots14

5On Target6

5Off Target6

2Blocked2

10Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

289Total Passes690

203Accurate Passes595

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4