Altay 0–0 Ordabasy: Result & Stats | Premier League

Altay

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ordabasy

5/10/2026

Premier League · Round 9Vostok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Altay31%

×Draw31%

Ordabasy38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.06

Altay

0.92

Ordabasy

1.06

Ordabasy creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

0.67

creates per match

1.24

0.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Altay

0.67

Ordabasy

1.24

allows per match

Altay

0.89

Ordabasy

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Ordabasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Altay or draw

62%

Altay or Ordabasy

69%

Draw or Ordabasy

69%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

11%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

60%

Altay 2+ goals

23%

Altay 3+ goals

7%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

65%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

29%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

45%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 0.67 + Ordabasy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Ordabasy attack 1.24 + Altay defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Altay scores more

31%

level

31%

Ordabasy scores more

38%

Ordabasy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Nikola Jambor

3'

Abylaikhan Nazymkhanov

34'

Dimitar Mitkov

60'

Samuel Odeyobo

61'

Z. Kukeev← S. Popov

63'

Y. Vakulko← M. Capatina

64'

M. Toktybay← D. Mitkov

65'

S. Ivanov← A. Nazymkhanov

66'

D. Mitrofanov← D. Stoisavljevic

69'

Aleksa Amanović

76'

V. Naumets← E. Astanov

76'

M. Khalmatov← Z. Amir

80'

O. Saylybaev← E. Gorshunov

80'

A. Teterin← I. Dadaev

82'

B. Toktybay← D. Abagna

89'

Doszhan Kenzhegulov

Altay5-4-1

Ordabasy3-5-2

15

▼

Amir

45

▼

Mitkov

5

Antic

10

▼

Astanov

16

▼

Capatina

77

▼

22

55

25

3

1

13

9

▼

4

23

3

15

11

▼

Dadaev

21

Jambor

18

▼

Nazymkhan

99

▼

Stoisavlj

77

▼

Popov

Manager: Vakhid Masudov

61'▲Z. Kukeev←▼S. Popov

65'▲S. Ivanov←▼A. Nazymkhanov

66'▲D. Mitrofanov←▼D. Stoisavljevic

80'▲O. Saylybaev←▼E. Gorshunov

80'▲A. Teterin←▼I. Dadaev

Altay substitutes

1Sapargaliev5Saylybaev6Redzhepov8Sapargaliyev10Omarbek17Kukeev19Gultyaev35Aliakbar46Teterin70Mitrofanov88Ivanov91Khizhnichenko

Manager: Andrei Martin

63'▲Y. Vakulko←▼M. Capatina

64'▲M. Toktybay←▼D. Mitkov

76'▲V. Naumets←▼E. Astanov

76'▲M. Khalmatov←▼Z. Amir

82'▲B. Toktybay←▼D. Abagna

Ordabasy substitutes

7Naumets11Vakulko13Tolepbergen14Turganov19Natel20Toktybay21Toktybay23Khalmatov24Abdukhalyk