Altay 3–0 Menemen FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Altay

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Menemen FK

İ. Öztürk 71', 6'

A. Regattin 24'

3/19/2021

1. Lig · Round 27Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Altay44%

×Draw26%

Menemen FK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchMenemen FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.18

Altay

1.49

Menemen FK

1.18

Altay creates 26% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 52 away

1.36

creates per match

1.06

1.30

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Altay

1.36

Menemen FK

1.06

allows per match

Altay

1.30

Menemen FK

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Menemen FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Altay or draw

70%

Altay or Menemen FK

74%

Draw or Menemen FK

56%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

22%

Menemen FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

77%

Altay 2+ goals

44%

Altay 3+ goals

19%

Menemen FK 1+ goals

69%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

33%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

60%

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.36 + Menemen FK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Menemen FK attack 1.06 + Altay defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Altay scores more

44%

level

26%

Menemen FK scores more

30%

Altay at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

İ. Öztürk

Altay · D

8.9

Match Events

6'

İ. Öztürk↳ E. Çelenk

24'

A. Regattin↳ Marco Paixão

46'

İ. Odabaşı← O. Yilmaz

46'

T. Anaane← M. Traore

58'

Emir Han Topcu

61'

M. Aytemiz← I. Rasheed

66'

68'

71'

74'

75'

Z. Yıldırım← K. Thiam

75'

Marcio Mossoró← E. Çelenk

80'

B. Sönmez← T. Aydoğan

86'

E. Erdoğan← A. Regattin

86'

İ. Depe← J. Ščuk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AltayMenemen

Overview

72%Possession28%

14Total Shots9

7Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots9

8On Target0

4Off Target8

2Blocked1

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

72%Possession28%

727Total Passes276

641Accurate Passes187

88%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides5