Altay 2–3 Kırklarelispor: Result & Stats

Altay

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kırklarelispor

İ. Öztürk 89'

M. Uluç 58' (pen)

O. Derici 71', 49' (pen)

A. Taş 10'

12/6/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundAlsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Altay40%

×Draw25%

Kırklarelispor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchKırklarelispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.40

Altay

1.50

Kırklarelispor

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.78

creates per match

1.23

1.56

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Altay

1.78

Kırklarelispor

1.23

allows per match

Altay

1.56

Kırklarelispor

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Kırklarelispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Altay or draw

65%

Altay or Kırklarelispor

75%

Draw or Kırklarelispor

60%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

19%

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

78%

Altay 2+ goals

44%

Altay 3+ goals

19%

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals

75%

Kırklarelispor 2+ goals

41%

Kırklarelispor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

53%

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Kırklarelispor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.78 + Kırklarelispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kırklarelispor attack 1.23 + Altay defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Altay scores more

40%

level

25%

Kırklarelispor scores more

35%

Altay at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Taş

44'

S. Ustun

46'

İ. Öztürk← S. Özdemir

46'

Ö. Özkaya← Y. Tekin

49'

O. DericiPenalty

53'

S. Sarikaya

58'

M. UluçPenalty

60'

60'

60'

60'

60'

A. Gezer← A. Kızılkuyu

66'

66'

71'

73'

78'

78'

84'

84'

89'

90+4'

Statistics

AltayKırklarelispor

Overview

4Corners3

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2

Türkiye Kupası: Altay 2–3 Kırklarelispor

Kırklarelispor beat Altay 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 6, 2023.

Goals: A. Taş (10'), O. Derici (49' pen, 71'), M. Uluç (58' pen), İ. Öztürk (89').

The match was played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı in İzmir.

Altay vs Kırklarelispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Türkiye Kupası: Altay 2–3 Kırklarelispor