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Altay vs Jas Qyran — Cup 2019

Altay
Altay
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
S. Mukhtarkhan 85'
A. Seitov 66'
3/16/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 1Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Altay27%
×Draw22%
Jas Qyran52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
1.38
Jas Qyran
2.00

Jas Qyran creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Altay
0.50
Jas Qyran
2.00

allows per match

Altay
2.00
Jas Qyran
2.25

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Altay or draw
48%
Altay or Jas Qyran
78%
Draw or Jas Qyran
73%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
11%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
75%
Altay 2+ goals
40%
Altay 3+ goals
16%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
86%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
59%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
34%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 0.50 + Jas Qyran defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Jas Qyran attack 2.00 + Altay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Altay scores more
27%
level
22%
Jas Qyran scores more
52%

Jas Qyran at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
N. Agzambaev
46'
E. Ospangali← E. Ospangali
54'
63'
V. Kryukov
66'
A. Seitov
69'
S. Kabirov← S. Kabirov
74'
S. Mukhtarkhan← S. Mukhtarkhan
81'
A. Kalymbetov← A. Kalymbetov
81'
A. Alikhan← A. Alikhan
85'
S. Mukhtarkhan
87'
I. Lapshin← I. Lapshin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altay vs Jas Qyran

Jas Qyran beat Altay 2-0 in Cup on March 16, 2023.

Goals: A. Seitov (66'), S. Mukhtarkhan (85').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.