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Altay vs Güzide Gebzespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Altay
Altay
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
10/26/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Altay51%
×Draw21%
Güzide Gebzespor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
2.10
Güzide Gebzespor
1.50

Altay creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Altay
1.78
Güzide Gebzespor
1.43

allows per match

Altay
1.56
Güzide Gebzespor
2.43

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Altay or draw
72%
Altay or Güzide Gebzespor
79%
Draw or Güzide Gebzespor
49%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
30%
Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
88%
Altay 2+ goals
62%
Altay 3+ goals
35%
Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
78%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
44%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
65%
Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.78 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.10

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.43 + Altay defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Altay scores more
51%
level
21%
Güzide Gebzespor scores more
28%

Altay at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altay vs Güzide Gebzespor

Altay beat Güzide Gebzespor 5-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.