Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Altay vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Altay
Altay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
2/10/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 22Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Altay37%
×Draw27%
Erzurumspor FK36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
1.22
Erzurumspor FK
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 109 away

creates per match

Altay
1.38
Erzurumspor FK
1.15

allows per match

Altay
1.28
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Altay or draw
64%
Altay or Erzurumspor FK
73%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
63%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
16%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
70%
Altay 2+ goals
34%
Altay 3+ goals
12%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
70%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
34%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
50%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.38 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.15 + Altay defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Altay scores more
37%
level
27%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
36%

Altay at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. YumluErzurumspor FKErzurumspor FK · D
8.0

Match Events

26'
M. Rosheuvel← U. Budak
40'
Süleyman Koç
46'
B. Artarslan← Ö. Sert
57'
Kuban Altunbudak
61'
Eren Tozlu
67'
H. Shala← C. Hanalp
69'
E. Yetkin← N. Küçükdeniz
69'
E. Özcan← C. Baycan
90+1'
Murat Demir
90+4'
M. Uluç← E. Erdoğan
90'
Y. Tekin← M. Gündüz

Possession

37%Altay

Shots

5Altay

Pass accuracy

47%Altay

Statistics

AltayErzurumspor
Overview
37%Possession63%
5Total Shots13
4Corners11
16Fouls19
Shots
5Total Shots13
0On Target0
4Off Target7
1Blocked6
3Inside Box8
2Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
227Total Passes389
152Accurate Passes301
67%Pass Accuracy77%
Discipline
16Fouls19
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

1. Lig: Altay 0–0 Erzurumspor FK

Altay and Erzurumspor FK drew 0-0 in 1. Lig on February 10, 2024.

Erzurumspor FK controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı in İzmir.