Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Altay vs Ekibastuz — 1. Division 2019

Altay
Altay
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
A. Metallov 69'
D. Kushkumbayev 39'
K. Gorizanov 17'
10/17/20241. Division1. Division · Round 29Stadion Vostok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Altay55%
×Draw23%
Ekibastuz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
1.85
Ekibastuz
1.11

Altay creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 91 away

creates per match

Altay
1.64
Ekibastuz
1.33

allows per match

Altay
0.89
Ekibastuz
2.07

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Ekibastuz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Ekibastuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Altay or draw
77%
Altay or Ekibastuz
77%
Draw or Ekibastuz
45%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
31%
Ekibastuz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
84%
Altay 2+ goals
55%
Altay 3+ goals
28%
Ekibastuz 1+ goals
67%
Ekibastuz 2+ goals
30%
Ekibastuz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
71%
Ekibastuz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Ekibastuz away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.64 + Ekibastuz defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ekibastuz attack 1.33 + Altay defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Altay scores more
55%
level
23%
Ekibastuz scores more
23%

Altay at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
K. Gorizanov
39'
D. Kushkumbayev
42'
61'
A. Metallov← A. Metallov
61'
D. Kushkumbayev← A. Seytkaliev
69'
A. Metallov
72'
A. Seytkaliev
88'
M. Galkin← A. Erken
88'
T. Igubaev← T. Igubaev
90'
A. Teterin
90+3'
D. Suslov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Altay 2–1 Ekibastuz

Altay beat Ekibastuz 2-1 in 1. Division on October 17, 2024.

Goals: K. Gorizanov (17'), D. Kushkumbayev (39'), A. Metallov (69').

The match was played at Stadion Vostok in Ust-Kamenogorsk.