Altay 3–0 Denizlispor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Altay

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Denizlispor

5/7/2023

1. Lig · Round 36Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Altay43%

×Draw25%

Denizlispor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchDenizlispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Altay

1.50

Denizlispor

1.27

Altay creates 18% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 52 away

1.38

creates per match

1.25

1.28

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Altay

1.38

Denizlispor

1.25

allows per match

Altay

1.28

Denizlispor

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Denizlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Denizlispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Altay or draw

68%

Altay or Denizlispor

75%

Draw or Denizlispor

57%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

21%

Denizlispor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

78%

Altay 2+ goals

44%

Altay 3+ goals

19%

Denizlispor 1+ goals

72%

Denizlispor 2+ goals

36%

Denizlispor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

57%

Denizlispor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Denizlispor away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.38 + Denizlispor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Denizlispor attack 1.25 + Altay defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Altay scores more

43%

level

25%

Denizlispor scores more

32%

Altay at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff