Altay 1–3 Çorum FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Altay

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Çorum FK

4/13/2024

1. Lig · Round 30Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Altay36%

×Draw26%

Çorum FK37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltayExpected goals in this matchÇorum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.31

Altay

1.28

Çorum FK

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 57 away

1.38

creates per match

1.35

1.28

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Altay

1.38

Çorum FK

1.35

allows per match

Altay

1.28

Çorum FK

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altay+0.00on par

Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Çorum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Altay or draw

63%

Altay or Çorum FK

74%

Draw or Çorum FK

64%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+

16%

Çorum FK wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals

72%

Altay 2+ goals

37%

Altay 3+ goals

14%

Çorum FK 1+ goals

73%

Çorum FK 2+ goals

38%

Çorum FK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)

49%

Çorum FK (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.38 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Altay defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Altay scores more

36%

level

26%

Çorum FK scores more

37%

Çorum FK at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff