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Altay vs Beykoz Anadolu — 1. Lig 2018

Altay
Altay
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
5/20/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 38Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Altay42%
×Draw26%
Beykoz Anadolu32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
1.42
Beykoz Anadolu
1.21

Altay creates 17% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 69 away

creates per match

Altay
1.38
Beykoz Anadolu
1.13

allows per match

Altay
1.28
Beykoz Anadolu
1.46

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Altay or draw
68%
Altay or Beykoz Anadolu
74%
Draw or Beykoz Anadolu
58%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
20%
Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
76%
Altay 2+ goals
41%
Altay 3+ goals
17%
Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
70%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
34%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
57%
Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.38 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Altay defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Altay scores more
42%
level
26%
Beykoz Anadolu scores more
32%

Altay at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Altay 3–1 Beykoz Anadolu

Altay beat Beykoz Anadolu 3-1 in 1. Lig on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı in İzmir.