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Altay vs Atyrau — Cup 2019

Altay
Altay
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atyrau
Atyrauadvanced
5/8/2019CupCup · Quarter-finalsStadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Altay22%
×Draw27%
Atyrau51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
0.86
Atyrau
1.46

Atyrau creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Altay
0.50
Atyrau
0.92

allows per match

Altay
2.00
Atyrau
1.23

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Atyrau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Altay or draw
49%
Altay or Atyrau
73%
Draw or Atyrau
78%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
7%
Atyrau wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
58%
Altay 2+ goals
21%
Altay 3+ goals
6%
Atyrau 1+ goals
77%
Atyrau 2+ goals
43%
Atyrau 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
30%
Atyrau (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Atyrau away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 0.50 + Atyrau defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.86

Atyrau attack 0.92 + Altay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Altay scores more
22%
level
27%
Atyrau scores more
51%

Atyrau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altay vs Atyrau

Altay and Atyrau drew 1-1 in Cup on May 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Semipalatinsk.