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Altach / Vorderland W vs Sturm Graz W — Frauenliga 2019

Altach / Vorderland W
Altach / Vorderland W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sturm Graz W
Sturm Graz W
9/1/2023FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 2CASHPOINT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Altach / Vorderland W44%
×Draw22%
Sturm Graz W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altach / Vorderland W
1.90
Sturm Graz W
1.63

Altach / Vorderland W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 65 away

creates per match

Altach / Vorderland W
2.74
Sturm Graz W
2.18

allows per match

Altach / Vorderland W
1.07
Sturm Graz W
1.06

finishing

Altach / Vorderland W+0.00on par
Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altach / Vorderland W ↓

Sturm Graz W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Altach / Vorderland W or draw
66%
Altach / Vorderland W or Sturm Graz W
78%
Draw or Sturm Graz W
56%

Winning margin

Altach / Vorderland W wins by 2+
24%
Sturm Graz W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Altach / Vorderland W 1+ goals
85%
Altach / Vorderland W 2+ goals
56%
Altach / Vorderland W 3+ goals
29%
Sturm Graz W 1+ goals
80%
Sturm Graz W 2+ goals
48%
Sturm Graz W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Altach / Vorderland W (draw refunded)
57%
Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altach / Vorderland W at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Sturm Graz W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altach / Vorderland W attack 2.74 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sturm Graz W attack 2.18 + Altach / Vorderland W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Altach / Vorderland W scores more
44%
level
22%
Sturm Graz W scores more
34%

Altach / Vorderland W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Altach / Vorderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauenliga: Altach / Vorderland W 2–0 Sturm Graz W

Altach / Vorderland W beat Sturm Graz W 2-0 in Frauenliga on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena in Altach.