Alta 3–3 Rana: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Rana

P. Brekke 42', 9'

C. Reginiussen 12'

J. Olufsen 86'

G. Andersen 66', 60'

9/13/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Finnmarkshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alta54%

×Draw20%

Rana26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchRana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.59

Alta

2.33

Rana

1.59

Alta creates 47% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

2.34

creates per match

1.63

1.55

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Rana

1.63

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Rana

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Rana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Alta or draw

74%

Alta or Rana

80%

Draw or Rana

46%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

33%

Rana wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

90%

Alta 2+ goals

67%

Alta 3+ goals

41%

Rana 1+ goals

80%

Rana 2+ goals

47%

Rana 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

67%

Rana (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Rana away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Rana defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.33

Rana attack 1.63 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alta scores more

54%

level

20%

Rana scores more

26%

Alta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

12'

42'

57'

59'

60'

63'

64'

66'

80'

84'

A. E. Hauknes← H. Bordal

86'

90'

90'

90'

Alta

Rana

1

4

5

20

28

▼

8

10

15

7

▼

Rise

11

⚽

Olufsen

14

⚽2

24

4

19

30

32

8

9

14

25

▼

Holsbo

18

⚽2

Brekke

23

⚽

Reginiuss

Manager: M. Duilo

63'▲M. Larsen←▼K. Holsbo

Alta substitutes

29Honka-Hallila34Arnason5Lamark10Larsen15Kleiva22Bello26Ingilae27Akesson40Kristensen

Manager: Ø. Valla

57'▲S. Beyene←▼F. Rise

84'▲A. E. Hauknes←▼H. Bordal

Rana substitutes

22Wardzala6Beyene9Hildre13Hauknes18Solhaug19Nilsskog

Alta 3 – 3 Rana

Alta and Rana drew 3-3 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 13, 2025.

Goals: P. Brekke (9', 42'), C. Reginiussen (12'), G. Andersen (60', 66'), J. Olufsen (86').

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen in Alta.

Alta vs Rana — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Alta 3 – 3 Rana