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Alta vs Mjølner — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Alta
Alta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mjølner
Mjølner
4/13/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 1Finnmarkshallen (Alta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta63%
×Draw18%
Mjølner19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta
2.51
Mjølner
1.33

Alta creates 89% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alta
2.34
Mjølner
1.15

allows per match

Alta
1.52
Mjølner
2.69

finishing

Alta+0.00on par
Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Mjølner →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Alta or draw
81%
Alta or Mjølner
82%
Draw or Mjølner
37%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+
41%
Mjølner wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals
92%
Alta 2+ goals
71%
Alta 3+ goals
45%
Mjølner 1+ goals
74%
Mjølner 2+ goals
38%
Mjølner 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)
77%
Mjølner (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.52 · 65 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Mjølner defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.51

Mjølner attack 1.15 + Alta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alta scores more
63%
level
18%
Mjølner scores more
19%

Alta at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alta vs Mjølner

Alta beat Mjølner 3-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen (Alta).