Alta 2–2 Kjelsås: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kjelsås

G. Olsen 90'

P. Brekke 89'

J. Aslaksrud 71'

K. Eriksen 11'

4/7/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Alta44%

×Draw23%

Kjelsås33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchKjelsås

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.56

Alta

1.84

Kjelsås

1.56

Alta creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 70 away

2.34

creates per match

1.56

1.55

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Kjelsås

1.56

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Kjelsås

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Kjelsås →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Alta or draw

67%

Alta or Kjelsås

77%

Draw or Kjelsås

56%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

24%

Kjelsås wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

84%

Alta 2+ goals

55%

Alta 3+ goals

28%

Kjelsås 1+ goals

79%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

46%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

57%

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Kjelsås defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kjelsås attack 1.56 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alta scores more

44%

level

23%

Kjelsås scores more

33%

Alta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

K. Eriksen

46'

G. Olsen← S. Holte

46'

T. Hestad← P. Aas

47'

S. Olafsen

54'

L. Hermansen

61'

N. Skum← M. Andersen

67'

P. Askengren← K. Eriksen

67'

M. Castberg Stølan← L. Bech Hermansen

71'

J. Aslaksrud

72'

C. Reginiussen

80'

M. Opgård← C. Reginiussen

86'

M. Alzubi← A. Mahammed

89'

P. Brekke

90'

G. Olsen

Alta

Kjelsås

1

17

22

5

3

21

8

28

▼

Hermansen

9

⚽

Aslaksrud

7

⚽

▼

Eriksen

27

▼

29

19

16

30

6

▼

Holte

5

Lamark

15

▼

Andersen

14

Jacobsen

7

▼

Aas

23

▼

Reginiuss

18

⚽

Brekke

Manager: M. Duilo

46'▲G. Olsen←▼S. Holte

46'▲T. Hestad←▼P. Aas

61'▲N. Skum←▼M. Andersen

80'▲M. Opgård←▼C. Reginiussen

Alta substitutes

8Olsen10Hestad12Skum33Opgård1Eltermanis25Holsbø32Andersen34Arnason27Åkesson

Manager: E. Kampen

67'▲P. Askengren←▼K. Eriksen

67'▲M. Castberg Stølan←▼L. Bech Hermansen

86'▲M. Alzubi←▼A. Mahammed

Kjelsås substitutes

19Askengren23Stølan15Alzubi29Halvorsen30Kirsebom

Match Recap: Alta vs Kjelsås

Alta and Kjelsås drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on April 7, 2024.

Goals: K. Eriksen (11'), J. Aslaksrud (71'), P. Brekke (89'), G. Olsen (90').

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.

Alta vs Kjelsås — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alta vs Kjelsås