Alta 2–0 Hønefoss: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hønefoss

C. Reginiussen 42'

N. Skum 7'

8/17/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Finnmarkshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alta49%

×Draw20%

Hønefoss31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchHønefoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.77

Alta

2.27

Hønefoss

1.77

Alta creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

2.34

creates per match

2.00

1.55

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Hønefoss

2.00

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Hønefoss

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Hønefoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Hønefoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Alta or draw

69%

Alta or Hønefoss

80%

Draw or Hønefoss

51%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

29%

Hønefoss wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

90%

Alta 2+ goals

66%

Alta 3+ goals

39%

Hønefoss 1+ goals

83%

Hønefoss 2+ goals

53%

Hønefoss 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

62%

Hønefoss (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Hønefoss away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Hønefoss defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.27

Hønefoss attack 2.00 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alta scores more

49%

level

20%

Hønefoss scores more

31%

Alta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

7'

40'

42'

45'

46'

54'

58'

I. H. Aalberg← E. Overby

58'

H. Svensson← S. Bukten

65'

65'

67'

74'

84'

88'

90'

T. E. Ingilae← P. Brekke

Alta

Hønefoss

26

3

5

14

15

8

23

▼

Bukten

29

Groven

11

Ringberg

19

▼

Overby

20

▼

Olimb

29

Honka-Hal

4

Mahlamaki

12

⚽

16

32

5

14

25

▼

Holsbo

10

▼

Larsen

18

▼

Brekke

23

⚽

Reginiuss

Manager: M. Duilo

74'▲Z. Bello←▼K. Holsbo

84'▲C. Kleiva←▼M. Larsen

90'▲T. E. Ingilae←▼P. Brekke

Alta substitutes

1Eltermanis15Kleiva17Degerstrom22Bello26Ingilae27Akesson45Eriksson

Manager: G. Halle

46'▲J. Bukten←▼M. Olimb

58'▲I. H. Aalberg←▼E. Overby

58'▲H. Svensson←▼S. Bukten

Hønefoss substitutes

1Eggen4Holte6Aalberg9Svensson13Bukten

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 2–0 Hønefoss

Alta beat Hønefoss 2-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 17, 2025.

Goals: N. Skum (7'), C. Reginiussen (42').

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen in Alta.

Alta vs Hønefoss — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 2–0 Hønefoss