Alta 1–2 Grorud: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Grorud

C. Reginiussen 4'

J. Rasen 53'

B. Brevik 21'

7/20/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Finnmarkshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alta44%

×Draw22%

Grorud34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchGrorud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.67

Alta

1.90

Grorud

1.67

Alta creates 14% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 38 away

2.34

creates per match

1.79

1.55

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Grorud

1.79

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Grorud

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Grorud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Grorud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Alta or draw

66%

Alta or Grorud

78%

Draw or Grorud

56%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

24%

Grorud wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

85%

Alta 2+ goals

56%

Alta 3+ goals

29%

Grorud 1+ goals

81%

Grorud 2+ goals

50%

Grorud 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

56%

Grorud (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Grorud away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Grorud defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Grorud attack 1.79 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alta scores more

44%

level

22%

Grorud scores more

34%

Alta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

21'

53'

62'

62'

68'

70'

S. Hammershaug← H. Etholm

79'

K. Otman← J. Rasen

85'

P. Eriksson← N. Antonsen

87'

90+2'

90+2'

90+4'

90'

W. Pozo-Venta← M. Dubois

90'

A. Elhammichi← T. Etholm

Alta

Grorud

1

2

4

23

25

⚽

Brevik

10

▼

Dubois

17

⚽

▼

Rasen

18

▼

Etholm

19

Mahnin

7

▼

Etholm

20

Fajfric

29

Honka-Hal

5

▼

Lamark

12

Skum

16

▼

30

32

14

25

10

22

▼

Bello

23

⚽

Reginiuss

Manager: M. Duilo

62'▲C. Kleiva←▼Z. Bello

62'▲P. Brekke←▼J. Lamark

85'▲P. Eriksson←▼N. Antonsen

Alta substitutes

1Eltermanis15Kleiva17Degerstrom18Brekke26Ingilae27Akesson45Eriksson

Manager: A. Alrek

70'▲S. Hammershaug←▼H. Etholm

79'▲K. Otman←▼J. Rasen

90'▲W. Pozo-Venta←▼M. Dubois

90'▲A. Elhammichi←▼T. Etholm

Grorud substitutes

12Rychter5Pop9Cham11Pozo-Venta14Hammershaug16Otman26Satheeskumar31Elhammichi

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 1–2 Grorud

Grorud beat Alta 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on July 20, 2025.

Goals: C. Reginiussen (4'), B. Brevik (21'), J. Rasen (53').

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen in Alta.

Alta vs Grorud — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 1–2 Grorud