Alta 1–1 Gjøvik-Lyn: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gjøvik-Lyn

M. Andersen 90+3'

J. Pettersen 22'

9/15/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Alta64%

×Draw18%

Gjøvik-Lyn18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchGjøvik-Lyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.26

Alta

2.50

Gjøvik-Lyn

1.26

Alta creates 98% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 39 away

2.34

creates per match

0.97

1.55

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Gjøvik-Lyn

0.97

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Gjøvik-Lyn

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Gjøvik-Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Gjøvik-Lyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Alta or draw

82%

Alta or Gjøvik-Lyn

82%

Draw or Gjøvik-Lyn

36%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

42%

Gjøvik-Lyn wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

92%

Alta 2+ goals

71%

Alta 3+ goals

45%

Gjøvik-Lyn 1+ goals

72%

Gjøvik-Lyn 2+ goals

36%

Gjøvik-Lyn 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

78%

Gjøvik-Lyn (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Gjøvik-Lyn away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.67 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Gjøvik-Lyn defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Gjøvik-Lyn attack 0.97 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Alta scores more

64%

level

18%

Gjøvik-Lyn scores more

18%

Alta at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Pettersen

32'

O. Sandberg

45'

A. Bjornhaug Remy

53'

G. Olsen← P. Aas

53'

M. Andersen← T. Suhr-Stamnes

61'

H. Gashnjani← O. Sandberg

63'

K. Thorvaldsen

69'

T. Kristiansen

70'

A. Berge← T. Kristiansen

77'

T. Wirkestad← A. Bjørnhaug

77'

E. Slåtten← L. Tveten

83'

M. Opgård← P. Brekke

90+3'

M. Andersen

Alta

Gjøvik-Lyn

1

Veloso

4

Jansen

3

▼

Kristians

5

▼

Bjørnhaug

25

Skattum-D

7

▼

Sandberg

21

Thorvalds

17

Rasoli

8

⚽

Pettersen

10

Helan

9

▼

29

19

16

30

32

14

7

▼

Aas

23

Reginiuss

10

Hestad

20

▼

Suhr-Stam

18

▼

Brekke

Manager: M. Duilo

53'▲G. Olsen←▼P. Aas

53'▲M. Andersen←▼T. Suhr-Stamnes

83'▲M. Opgård←▼P. Brekke

Alta substitutes

8Olsen15Andersen33Opgård1Eltermanis12Skum25Holsbø27Åkesson34Arnason40Kristensen

Manager: M. Abdullahi

61'▲H. Gashnjani←▼O. Sandberg

70'▲A. Berge←▼T. Kristiansen

77'▲T. Wirkestad←▼A. Bjørnhaug

77'▲E. Slåtten←▼L. Tveten

Gjøvik-Lyn substitutes

26Gashnjani13Berge23Wirkestad24Slåtten