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Alta vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Alta
Alta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Floro
Floro
7/20/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 12Finnmarkshallen (Alta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta55%
×Draw21%
Floro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta
2.05
Floro
1.26

Alta creates 63% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alta
2.34
Floro
1.00

allows per match

Alta
1.52
Floro
1.77

finishing

Alta+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alta or draw
77%
Alta or Floro
79%
Draw or Floro
45%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+
33%
Floro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals
87%
Alta 2+ goals
61%
Alta 3+ goals
33%
Floro 1+ goals
72%
Floro 2+ goals
36%
Floro 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)
70%
Floro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.52 · 65 matches

Floro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Floro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.05

Floro attack 1.00 + Alta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alta scores more
55%
level
21%
Floro scores more
23%

Alta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alta 3 – 0 Floro

Alta beat Floro 3-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen (Alta).