Alta 2–4 Eidsvold: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Eidsvold

T. Hestad 51', 27'

H. Henriksen 86'

J. Gonstad 64'

V. Kaba 49'

S. Stenseth 37'

9/1/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alta50%

×Draw20%

Eidsvold29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchEidsvold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.67

Alta

2.23

Eidsvold

1.67

Alta creates 34% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 45 away

2.34

creates per match

1.78

1.55

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Eidsvold

1.78

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Eidsvold

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Eidsvold+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Eidsvold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Alta or draw

71%

Alta or Eidsvold

80%

Draw or Eidsvold

50%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

30%

Eidsvold wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

89%

Alta 2+ goals

65%

Alta 3+ goals

38%

Eidsvold 1+ goals

81%

Eidsvold 2+ goals

50%

Eidsvold 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

63%

Eidsvold (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Eidsvold away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Eidsvold defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.23

Eidsvold attack 1.78 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alta scores more

50%

level

20%

Eidsvold scores more

29%

Alta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

37'

49'

51'

59'

60'

B. Notoane← F. Delaveris

60'

K. Bandeh← S. Stenseth

64'

J. Gonstad

67'

M. Andersen← M. Opgård

76'

G. Olsen← K. Holsbø

81'

H. Henriksen← V. Kaba

81'

M. Sørensen← J. Gonstad

86'

H. Henriksen

88'

M. Velldal← P. Hokstad

Alta

Eidsvold

12

5

4

3

2

23

16

▼

Delaveris

20

▼

Hokstad

6

⚽

▼

Kaba

17

⚽

▼

Stenseth

19

⚽

▼

29

16

30

5

32

14

25

▼

Holsbø

33

▼

Opgård

23

Reginiuss

10

⚽2

Hestad

18

Brekke

Manager: M. Duilo

67'▲M. Andersen←▼M. Opgård

76'▲G. Olsen←▼K. Holsbø

Alta substitutes

15Andersen8Olsen1Eltermanis12Skum20Suhr-Stamnes27Åkesson34Arnason40Kristensen

60'▲B. Notoane←▼F. Delaveris

60'▲K. Bandeh←▼S. Stenseth

81'▲H. Henriksen←▼V. Kaba

81'▲M. Sørensen←▼J. Gonstad

88'▲M. Velldal←▼P. Hokstad

Eidsvold substitutes

11Notoane27Bandeh10Henriksen18Sørensen14Velldal22Andersson

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 2–4 Eidsvold

Eidsvold beat Alta 4-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 1, 2024.

Goals: T. Hestad (27', 51'), S. Stenseth (37'), V. Kaba (49'), J. Gonstad (64'), H. Henriksen (86').

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.

Alta vs Eidsvold — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 2–4 Eidsvold