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Alta II vs Skjervøy — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Alta II
Alta II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Skjervøy
Skjervøy
N. Martynenko 52'
D. Gherghinoiu 49'
M. Johannessen 21'
8/16/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 16SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta II55%
×Draw17%
Skjervøy28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta II
3.38
Skjervøy
2.42

Alta II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alta II
1.92
Skjervøy
1.62

allows per match

Alta II
3.23
Skjervøy
4.85

finishing

Alta II+0.00on par
Skjervøy+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta II ↓

Skjervøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
82%18%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Alta II or draw
72%
Alta II or Skjervøy
83%
Draw or Skjervøy
45%

Winning margin

Alta II wins by 2+
37%
Skjervøy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alta II 1+ goals
96%
Alta II 2+ goals
84%
Alta II 3+ goals
64%
Skjervøy 1+ goals
91%
Skjervøy 2+ goals
69%
Skjervøy 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Alta II (draw refunded)
67%
Skjervøy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Skjervøy away — creates 1.62, concedes 4.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta II attack 1.92 + Skjervøy defence 4.85 → ÷2 → 3.38

Skjervøy attack 1.62 + Alta II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alta II scores more
55%
level
17%
Skjervøy scores more
28%

Alta II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. Johannessen
49'
D. Gherghinoiu
52'
N. Martynenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alta II vs Skjervøy

Skjervøy beat Alta II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Johannessen (21'), D. Gherghinoiu (49'), N. Martynenko (52').

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.