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Alta II vs Gamle Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Alta II
Alta II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo
V. I. Vistnes 90'
H. Mikalsen 82'
D. Tavakoli 89'
9/14/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 20SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta II29%
×Draw18%
Gamle Oslo53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta II
2.07
Gamle Oslo
2.81

Gamle Oslo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Alta II
1.92
Gamle Oslo
2.39

allows per match

Alta II
3.23
Gamle Oslo
2.22

finishing

Alta II+0.00on par
Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta II ↓

Gamle Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Alta II or draw
47%
Alta II or Gamle Oslo
82%
Draw or Gamle Oslo
71%

Winning margin

Alta II wins by 2+
15%
Gamle Oslo wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Alta II 1+ goals
87%
Alta II 2+ goals
61%
Alta II 3+ goals
34%
Gamle Oslo 1+ goals
94%
Gamle Oslo 2+ goals
76%
Gamle Oslo 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Alta II (draw refunded)
35%
Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Gamle Oslo away — creates 2.39, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta II attack 1.92 + Gamle Oslo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.07

Gamle Oslo attack 2.39 + Alta II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alta II scores more
29%
level
18%
Gamle Oslo scores more
53%

Gamle Oslo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
H. Mikalsen
89'
D. Tavakoli
90'
V. I. Vistnes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Alta II 2–1 Gamle Oslo

Alta II beat Gamle Oslo 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: H. Mikalsen (82'), D. Tavakoli (89'), V. I. Vistnes (90').

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.