Altınordu 0–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Altınordu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Göztepe

M. Ngalina 23'

3/7/2023

1. Lig · Round 25Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Altınordu33%

×Draw27%

Göztepe40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltınorduExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.29

Altınordu

1.15

Göztepe

1.29

Göztepe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 44 away

1.37

creates per match

1.30

1.29

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Altınordu

1.37

Göztepe

1.30

allows per match

Altınordu

1.29

Göztepe

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altınordu+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altınordu ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Altınordu or draw

60%

Altınordu or Göztepe

73%

Draw or Göztepe

67%

Winning margin

Altınordu wins by 2+

13%

Göztepe wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Altınordu 1+ goals

68%

Altınordu 2+ goals

32%

Altınordu 3+ goals

11%

Göztepe 1+ goals

72%

Göztepe 2+ goals

37%

Göztepe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Altınordu (draw refunded)

45%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altınordu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altınordu attack 1.37 + Göztepe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Göztepe attack 1.30 + Altınordu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Altınordu scores more

33%

level

27%

Göztepe scores more

40%

Göztepe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Aydoğan

Altınordu · M

7.7

Match Events

23'

M. Ngalina↳ İ. Köybaşı

33'

45'

46'

46'

66'

H. Yener← M. Mimaroğlu

66'

K. Sürmeli← M. Yilmaz

66'

L. Bayéré← M. Ngalina

67'

78'

84'

85'

85'

90+2'

90+4'

L. Gottwalt← Y. Kayan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AltınorduGöztepe

Overview

75%Possession25%

14Total Shots11

4Corners1

7Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots11

6On Target2

5Off Target7

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

75%Possession25%

716Total Passes237

626Accurate Passes148

87%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Altınordu vs Göztepe

Göztepe beat Altınordu 1-0 in 1. Lig on March 7, 2023.

Goals: M. Ngalina (23').

Altınordu controlled possession (75%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.

Altınordu vs Göztepe — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Altınordu vs Göztepe