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Altınordu vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Altınordu
Altınordu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
2/17/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 22Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Altınordu27%
×Draw24%
Gaziantep FK48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altınordu
1.17
Gaziantep FK
1.64

Gaziantep FK creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

creates per match

Altınordu
1.41
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Altınordu
1.28
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Altınordu+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altınordu ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Altınordu or draw
52%
Altınordu or Gaziantep FK
76%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
73%

Winning margin

Altınordu wins by 2+
11%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Altınordu 1+ goals
69%
Altınordu 2+ goals
33%
Altınordu 3+ goals
11%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
81%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
49%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Altınordu (draw refunded)
36%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altınordu at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 88 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altınordu attack 1.41 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Altınordu defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Altınordu scores more
27%
level
24%
Gaziantep FK scores more
48%

Gaziantep FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Altınordu 1–0 Gaziantep FK

Altınordu beat Gaziantep FK 1-0 in 1. Lig on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.