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Altınordu vs Fethiyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Altınordu
Altınordu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fethiyespor
Fethiyespor
11/4/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Altınordu52%
×Draw22%
Fethiyespor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altınordu
1.96
Fethiyespor
1.31

Altınordu creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Altınordu
2.00
Fethiyespor
0.91

allows per match

Altınordu
1.71
Fethiyespor
1.91

finishing

Altınordu+0.00on par
Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altınordu ↓

Fethiyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Altınordu or draw
74%
Altınordu or Fethiyespor
78%
Draw or Fethiyespor
48%

Winning margin

Altınordu wins by 2+
30%
Fethiyespor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Altınordu 1+ goals
86%
Altınordu 2+ goals
58%
Altınordu 3+ goals
31%
Fethiyespor 1+ goals
73%
Fethiyespor 2+ goals
38%
Fethiyespor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Altınordu (draw refunded)
67%
Fethiyespor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altınordu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Fethiyespor away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altınordu attack 2.00 + Fethiyespor defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Fethiyespor attack 0.91 + Altınordu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Altınordu scores more
52%
level
22%
Fethiyespor scores more
26%

Altınordu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Altınordu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Altınordu 2–1 Fethiyespor

Altınordu beat Fethiyespor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.