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Altınordu vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Altınordu
Altınordu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
2/26/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 24Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Altınordu37%
×Draw27%
Erzurumspor FK36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altınordu
1.23
Erzurumspor FK
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 110 away

creates per match

Altınordu
1.41
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Altınordu
1.28
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Altınordu+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altınordu ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Altınordu or draw
64%
Altınordu or Erzurumspor FK
73%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
63%

Winning margin

Altınordu wins by 2+
16%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Altınordu 1+ goals
71%
Altınordu 2+ goals
35%
Altınordu 3+ goals
13%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
70%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
34%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Altınordu (draw refunded)
50%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altınordu at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 88 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altınordu attack 1.41 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Altınordu defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Altınordu scores more
37%
level
27%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
36%

Altınordu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Altınordu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altınordu vs Erzurumspor FK

Altınordu beat Erzurumspor FK 2-1 in 1. Lig on February 26, 2020.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.