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Altınordu vs Çorum FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Altınordu
Altınordu
CANC
11:30
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
11/25/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Altınordu52%
×Draw19%
Çorum FK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altınordu
2.50
Çorum FK
1.85

Altınordu creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Altınordu
2.00
Çorum FK
2.00

allows per match

Altınordu
1.71
Çorum FK
3.00

finishing

Altınordu+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altınordu ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Altınordu or draw
71%
Altınordu or Çorum FK
81%
Draw or Çorum FK
48%

Winning margin

Altınordu wins by 2+
32%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Altınordu 1+ goals
92%
Altınordu 2+ goals
71%
Altınordu 3+ goals
45%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
84%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
55%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Altınordu (draw refunded)
64%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altınordu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altınordu attack 2.00 + Çorum FK defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Çorum FK attack 2.00 + Altınordu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Altınordu scores more
52%
level
19%
Çorum FK scores more
29%

Altınordu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Altınordu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Altınordu vs Çorum FK — Match Preview

Altınordu face Çorum FK on November 25, 2020 in this Türkiye Kupası fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Altınordu host Çorum FK at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.