Altınordu 1–3 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Altınordu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

12/1/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Altınordu53%

×Draw22%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltınorduExpected goals in this match68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.21

Altınordu

1.90

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

1.21

Altınordu creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

0.70

1.71

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Altınordu

2.00

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

0.70

allows per match

Altınordu

1.71

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altınordu+0.00on par

68 Aksaray Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altınordu ↓

68 Aksaray Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Altınordu or draw

76%

Altınordu or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

78%

Draw or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

47%

Winning margin

Altınordu wins by 2+

31%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Altınordu 1+ goals

85%

Altınordu 2+ goals

56%

Altınordu 3+ goals

29%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1+ goals

70%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2+ goals

34%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Altınordu (draw refunded)

69%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altınordu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

68 Aksaray Belediyespor away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altınordu attack 2.00 + 68 Aksaray Belediyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

68 Aksaray Belediyespor attack 0.70 + Altınordu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Altınordu scores more

53%

level

22%

68 Aksaray Belediyespor scores more

24%

Altınordu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Altınordu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff