Altındağ Belediyesispor 1–2 Yozgatspor 1959

Altındağ Belediyesispor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yozgatspor 1959

A. Tuncay 90' (pen)

K. Ulus 77'

B. Aslan 44' (OG)

9/11/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundÇubuk İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Altındağ Belediyesispor57%

×Draw24%

Yozgatspor 195919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Altındağ BelediyesisporExpected goals in this matchYozgatspor 1959

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.83

Altındağ Belediyesispor

1.67

Yozgatspor 1959

0.83

Altındağ Belediyesispor creates 101% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Altındağ Belediyesispor

2.00

Yozgatspor 1959

0.83

allows per match

Altındağ Belediyesispor

0.83

Yozgatspor 1959

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altındağ Belediyesispor+0.00on par

Yozgatspor 1959+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altındağ Belediyesispor ↓

Yozgatspor 1959 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Altındağ Belediyesispor or draw

81%

Altındağ Belediyesispor or Yozgatspor 1959

76%

Draw or Yozgatspor 1959

43%

Winning margin

Altındağ Belediyesispor wins by 2+

32%

Yozgatspor 1959 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Altındağ Belediyesispor 1+ goals

81%

Altındağ Belediyesispor 2+ goals

50%

Altındağ Belediyesispor 3+ goals

23%

Yozgatspor 1959 1+ goals

56%

Yozgatspor 1959 2+ goals

20%

Yozgatspor 1959 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Altındağ Belediyesispor (draw refunded)

76%

Yozgatspor 1959 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altındağ Belediyesispor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Yozgatspor 1959 away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altındağ Belediyesispor attack 2.00 + Yozgatspor 1959 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Yozgatspor 1959 attack 0.83 + Altındağ Belediyesispor defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Altındağ Belediyesispor scores more

57%

level

24%

Yozgatspor 1959 scores more

19%

Altındağ Belediyesispor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Altındağ Belediyesispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

B. AslanOwn goal

58'

O. Kandemir← Y. Şencay

60'

60'

71'

77'

81'

84'

90'

A. TuncayPenalty

Altındağ

Yozgatspor

22

Özkara

53

Arıcı

19

▼

Kısa

99

Zorlu

50

⚽

Ulus

7

Öztürk

20

▼

21

66

42

9

▼

97

25

3

69

70

4

41

▼

Balaban

21

▼

Toptan

61

▼

Aydın

7

Şirin

11

🥅

Aslan

Manager: H. Demirkan

60'▲M. Doğan←▼A. Aydın

60'▲A. Tuncay←▼E. Toptan

81'▲Y. Kaya←▼B. Balaban

Altındağ Belediyesispor substitutes

8Doğan17Tuncay23Kaya33Çalışlar77Küçükkarış88Karabay99Ağaoğlu

Manager: F. Kavlak

58'▲O. Kandemir←▼Y. Şencay

71'▲A. Deniz←▼B. Ersoy

84'▲S. Göker←▼B. Kısa

Yozgatspor 1959 substitutes

6Kandemir10Deniz35Göker4Keçelioğlu11Erdoğan65Kurt97Karakurt

Türkiye Kupası: Altındağ Belediyesispor 1–2 Yozgatspor 1959

Yozgatspor 1959 beat Altındağ Belediyesispor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

Goals: B. Aslan (44' o.g.), K. Ulus (77'), A. Tuncay (90' pen).

The match was played at Çubuk İlçe Stadı in Çubuk.

Altındağ Belediyesispor vs Yozgatspor 1959 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Türkiye Kupası: Altındağ Belediyesispor 1–2 Yozgatspor 1959