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Altındağ Belediyesispor vs Alanyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Altındağ Belediyesispor
Altındağ Belediyesispor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
10/31/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundAktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Altındağ Belediyesispor46%
×Draw24%
Alanyaspor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altındağ Belediyesispor
1.73
Alanyaspor
1.35

Altındağ Belediyesispor creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Altındağ Belediyesispor
2.00
Alanyaspor
1.88

allows per match

Altındağ Belediyesispor
0.83
Alanyaspor
1.47

finishing

Altındağ Belediyesispor+0.00on par
Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altındağ Belediyesispor ↓

Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Altındağ Belediyesispor or draw
70%
Altındağ Belediyesispor or Alanyaspor
76%
Draw or Alanyaspor
54%

Winning margin

Altındağ Belediyesispor wins by 2+
25%
Alanyaspor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Altındağ Belediyesispor 1+ goals
82%
Altındağ Belediyesispor 2+ goals
52%
Altındağ Belediyesispor 3+ goals
25%
Alanyaspor 1+ goals
74%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
39%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Altındağ Belediyesispor (draw refunded)
61%
Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altındağ Belediyesispor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altındağ Belediyesispor attack 2.00 + Alanyaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Alanyaspor attack 1.88 + Altındağ Belediyesispor defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altındağ Belediyesispor scores more
46%
level
24%
Alanyaspor scores more
30%

Altındağ Belediyesispor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Altındağ Belediyesispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Altındağ Belediyesispor 1–3 Alanyaspor

Alanyaspor beat Altındağ Belediyesispor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.