Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1–0 Naft Al-Janoob

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Naft Al-Janoob

12/3/2020

Iraqi League · Round 6Al Sina'a Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya39%

×Draw33%

Naft Al-Janoob28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alsinaat Al KahrabaiyaExpected goals in this matchNaft Al-Janoob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.79

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

1.00

Naft Al-Janoob

0.79

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 93 away

0.76

creates per match

0.88

0.71

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

0.76

Naft Al-Janoob

0.88

allows per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

0.71

Naft Al-Janoob

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or draw

72%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or Naft Al-Janoob

67%

Draw or Naft Al-Janoob

61%

Winning margin

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+

15%

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals

63%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals

26%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals

8%

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals

55%

Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals

19%

Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)

59%

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.76 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more

39%

level

33%

Naft Al-Janoob scores more

28%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff