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Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
2/8/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 18Al Sina'a Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya37%
×Draw31%
Erbil31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1.02
Erbil
0.91

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 110 away

creates per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.76
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.71
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or draw
69%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or Erbil
69%
Draw or Erbil
63%

Winning margin

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
14%
Erbil wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
64%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
27%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
8%
Erbil 1+ goals
60%
Erbil 2+ goals
23%
Erbil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
54%
Erbil (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.76 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Erbil attack 1.11 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
37%
level
31%
Erbil scores more
31%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya vs Erbil

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya beat Erbil 2-0 in Iraqi League on February 8, 2021.

The match was played at Al Sina'a Stadium in Bagdad.