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Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2020

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2/22/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · 2020 - 2Al Sina'a Stadium (Baġdād (Bagdad))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya27%
×Draw32%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.78
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.05

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 109 away

creates per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.76
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.39

allows per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.71
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.79

finishing

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or draw
59%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
68%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
73%

Winning margin

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
8%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
54%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
18%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
4%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
65%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
39%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.76 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.39 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
27%
level
32%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
41%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 0–3 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3-0 in Iraqi League on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Al Sina'a Stadium (Baġdād (Bagdad)).