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Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya vs Al-Qasim — Iraqi League 2020

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
12/28/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 11Al Sina'a Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya43%
×Draw31%
Al-Qasim25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1.12
Al-Qasim
0.78

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 109 away

creates per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.76
Al-Qasim
0.85

allows per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.71
Al-Qasim
1.48

finishing

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par
Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya ↓

Al-Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or draw
75%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or Al-Qasim
69%
Draw or Al-Qasim
57%

Winning margin

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
18%
Al-Qasim wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
67%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
31%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
10%
Al-Qasim 1+ goals
54%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
18%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.76 + Al-Qasim defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al-Qasim attack 0.85 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
43%
level
31%
Al-Qasim scores more
25%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya vs Al-Qasim

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya and Al-Qasim drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on December 28, 2020.

The match was played at Al Sina'a Stadium in Bagdad.