Alpendorada 7–1 Estrela: Result & Stats

Alpendorada

FT

7 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Estrela

9/21/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alpendorada62%

×Draw19%

Estrela19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlpendoradaExpected goals in this matchEstrela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.27

Alpendorada

2.41

Estrela

1.27

Alpendorada creates 90% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.60

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Alpendorada

2.60

Estrela

1.33

allows per match

Alpendorada

1.20

Estrela

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alpendorada+0.00on par

Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alpendorada ↓

Estrela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Alpendorada or draw

81%

Alpendorada or Estrela

81%

Draw or Estrela

38%

Winning margin

Alpendorada wins by 2+

40%

Estrela wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alpendorada 1+ goals

91%

Alpendorada 2+ goals

69%

Alpendorada 3+ goals

43%

Estrela 1+ goals

72%

Estrela 2+ goals

36%

Estrela 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alpendorada (draw refunded)

77%

Estrela (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alpendorada at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alpendorada attack 2.60 + Estrela defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.41

Estrela attack 1.33 + Alpendorada defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Alpendorada scores more

62%

level

19%

Estrela scores more

19%

Alpendorada at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Alpendorada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff