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Alpendorada vs Cinfães — Taça de Portugal 2018

Alpendorada
Alpendorada
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cinfães
Cinfães
10/20/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Alpendorada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alpendorada58%
×Draw19%
Cinfães23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alpendorada
2.42
Cinfães
1.48

Alpendorada creates 64% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Alpendorada
2.60
Cinfães
1.75

allows per match

Alpendorada
1.20
Cinfães
2.25

finishing

Alpendorada+0.00on par
Cinfães+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alpendorada ↓

Cinfães →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Alpendorada or draw
77%
Alpendorada or Cinfães
81%
Draw or Cinfães
42%

Winning margin

Alpendorada wins by 2+
37%
Cinfães wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alpendorada 1+ goals
91%
Alpendorada 2+ goals
69%
Alpendorada 3+ goals
43%
Cinfães 1+ goals
77%
Cinfães 2+ goals
43%
Cinfães 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Alpendorada (draw refunded)
72%
Cinfães (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alpendorada at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Cinfães away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alpendorada attack 2.60 + Cinfães defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Cinfães attack 1.75 + Alpendorada defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alpendorada scores more
58%
level
19%
Cinfães scores more
23%

Alpendorada at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alpendorada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alpendorada vs Cinfães

Alpendorada and Cinfães drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada in Alpendurada e Matos.