Alpendorada 1–2 Academica: Result & Stats

Alpendorada

AET

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Academica

Unknown 90+7'

D. Costa 116'

H. Seco 11'

9/25/2021

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Alpendorada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alpendorada60%

×Draw22%

Academica18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlpendoradaExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.94

Alpendorada

1.89

Academica

0.94

Alpendorada creates 101% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.60

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Alpendorada

2.60

Academica

0.67

allows per match

Alpendorada

1.20

Academica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alpendorada+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alpendorada ↓

Academica →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alpendorada or draw

82%

Alpendorada or Academica

78%

Draw or Academica

40%

Winning margin

Alpendorada wins by 2+

35%

Academica wins by 2+

Team goals

Alpendorada 1+ goals

85%

Alpendorada 2+ goals

56%

Alpendorada 3+ goals

29%

Academica 1+ goals

61%

Academica 2+ goals

24%

Academica 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alpendorada (draw refunded)

76%

Academica (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alpendorada at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Academica away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alpendorada attack 2.60 + Academica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Academica attack 0.67 + Alpendorada defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alpendorada scores more

60%

level

22%

Academica scores more

18%

Alpendorada at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alpendorada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

H. Seco

90+7'

116'

D. Costa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff